Application of the HYSPLIT model for birch pollen modelling in Poland

Abstract In this work, the HYSPLIT model was used to reproduce birch pollen concentrations in Poland for years 2015 and 2016, where there significant variation terms of start/end dates season. The analysis observations showed that seasonal integral (SPIn) low with a shorter season compared 2016. SPIn unusually high. simulation, one-hour temporal resolution, conducted during (from March May) Meteorological data were obtained from WRF model. coverage map European Forest Institute used. emission, introduced model, covered Central Europe resolution 0.3° × 0.3°. results 11 observation stations Poland. measured overestimated by at 8 (normalized mean bias/NMB 0.13 2.53) underestimated three (NMB − 0.44 0.15). For highly concentrations, NMB ranging 0.45 0.93. general, show can resolve main peaks which is step forward application forecasting over We suggest methods reduce bias temperature such as meteorological assimilation or correction, could improve calculation start emissions consequently well concentrations.